Thanksgiving forecast: An Arctic blast in the heartland, wet weather in the East

A view from the Buffalo City Town Hall of a wall of intense snowfall descending on the western New York Southtowns. This was the first of two historic back-to-back lake-effect snow events in November 2014. (Image credit: Shawn Smith, NOAA Weather in Focus Photo Contest 2015)

November 26, 2024

Thanksgiving weather can present a cornucopia of hazards, and this year, your travel plans may be impacted by one or more of them. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is keeping an eye on several threats for Turkey Day travelers throughout the holiday week and into the weekend.

Wednesday: Rocky weather in the mountains

Folks getting on an airplane in New England on Wednesday might need to prepare for a few bumps in the air, with a storm system bringing breezy conditions and a few lake effect showers. Meanwhile, as of this writing, the storm system plaguing the West Coast is likely to bring snow in the Colorado Rockies, the Bitterroot Range in Idaho and Montana and the Wasatch Mountains of Utah.

Thanksgiving Day: Rain on (New Yorkers’) parade

On Thanksgiving Day, parade-goers in Manhattan will want a hooded jacket to shield them from a few rain showers, with steadier rain arriving later in the day from the Mid-South and Ohio River valley. Arctic air begins its march southward into the upper Plains, with high temperatures expected to top out in the teens and twenties. It’ll be mostly dry west of the Mississippi Valley, but many in the East will be dodging raindrops, with accumulating snow possible in the higher elevations away from the coast.

Friday: The temperature plunge continues

Shoppers looking to take advantage of in-person Black Friday deals will have to bundle up from the Plains to the Great Lakes region, as high temperatures will be 15-25 degrees F below average. Wind chills will make it feel below zero in the northern Plains and Midwest, and lake effect snow is likely from the upper peninsula of Michigan to western New York.

Saturday: Lake effect in full force

The system that brought rain and snow to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Friday pulls away, leaving blustery winds in its wake. The water in all five of the Great Lakes is hovering in record-warm territory, which provides all the necessary fuel for another round of lake-effect snow. Heavy snow could fall downwind of Lakes Ontario and Erie.

Sunday: Bundle up to travel back

It stays cold across the Northeast and Midwest on Sunday, but with a sprawling area of high pressure in control, wintry weather is unlikely to cause travel delays on most interstates and at the airport hubs. The lake effect snow machine keeps humming along, however, and residents from Michigan to New York could be shoveling even more snow on the last day of the holiday weekend.